Earlier this year, we rounded up 20 security predictions for 2018 from across the industry. As we are nearing the halfway mark of the year, we thought it might be useful to revisit those predictions and see how they were panning out.
Here we look back at the first three predictions – and the last three – because we made those and have continued to follow the trendline on them. All 20 predictions have been transformed into the infographic below for your review.
Prediction #1: Ransomware would evolve into blackmail.
Indeed, that seems to be true, as we saw in the ransomware attacked that crippled the City of Atlanta. The cost of that incident is upwards of $2 million, according to TechCrunch, and estimates indicate it will grow much larger.
Prediction #2: End users will still be the weakest part of security.
Hindsight is always 20/20, but perhaps that isn’t a prediction but a statement of fact. Some pundits even call it an eternal struggle.
Prediction #3: Identify verification services expand to banks.
If that hasn’t happened yet, there’s a good chance it’s on its way. Identity was a big trend at the 2018 RSA conference, and the security trade publications geared to financial services are running postmortem stories on knowledge-based authentication.
And skipping down to the last three:
Prediction #18: CFOs demand smarter spending on IT security.
We think this is mostly true. We posed this question to security expert John Pirc for this blog because he has written a book on the economics of cybersecurity. He seems to agree in part, that on one hand, that CFOs and security alike should be looking to get more value out of tools – obtaining multiple methods of detection on a single sensor for example. However, he also points out security is an arms race and older tools weren’t designed for emerging threats. The complete interview is worth a read: Threat Evolution and the Economics of Cybersecurity.
Prediction #19: Network behavioral analysis emerges as a cornerstone.
We think this is proving true because the technology has improved and it’s harder for threats to hide behavior like communicating out to a command and control (C2) server. If signatures analysis is like fingerprints in a criminal investigation, behavioral detection is like profiling: it’s not foolproof, but it is harder to hide. This piece does a good job of explaining the differences among detection techniques: Layers of Cybersecurity: Signature Detection vs. Network Behavioral Analysis.
Prediction #20: Standalone IDS and IPS go back to the future, but better.
This is true. The industry’s track record parts the path since this analyst prediction about IDS in 2003. Security has become an exercise in risk management, which means security has to detect and triage threats faster and more accurately. The process of doing that properly can also serve as a path to being hunting for threats that haven’t been detected. As they say, a good offense makes a good defense.
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The full infographic follows below. Let us know what you think. Tweet us up: @BricataInc
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